Consistency bias often results in which type of confidence?

Consistency bias refers to a cognitive tendency where individuals believe that their current interpretations and preferences are consistent with their past beliefs and actions. This phenomenon often leads individuals to exhibit high confidence in conclusions drawn from a small sample of data while overlooking or underestimating the influence of larger, more comprehensive data sets.

In the context of decision-making, when a small sample aligns with existing beliefs or expectations, individuals may feel excessively confident in their conclusions. This occurs because the small sample appears to confirm their existing views, reinforcing their confidence in those views despite the limited nature of the data. As a result, individuals might ignore contradictory evidence or broader trends present in larger data sets.

This tendency can have significant implications in management and leadership, as decisions based solely on small, consistent data points can lead to misjudgment and poor strategies. By understanding consistency bias, leaders can strive to make more informed, data-driven decisions rather than relying solely on personal biases and limited experiences.